Objective verification of World Area Forecast Centre clear air turbulence forecasts

Verification of clear-air turbulence forecasts

Study of Clear Air Turbulence over Iranian Plato

This study was carried out using two sets of numerical weather forecast data and flight reports for Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) over Iranian Plato to find atmospheric flow patterns favorable to the formation of CAT. The numerical data include five months of AVN analysis with horizontal resolution of 1 degree(about 100 km) and four months forecast data of MM5 model with resolution of 50 km. Impor...

Clear-air turbulence in a changing climate

Atmospheric turbulence causes most weather-related aircraft incidents. Commercial aircraft encounter moderate-or-greater turbulence tens of thousands of times each year worldwide, injuring probably hundreds of passengers (occasionally fatally), costing airlines tens of millions of dollars and causing structural damage to planes. Clear-air turbulence is especially difficult to avoid, because it ...

Verification of COAMPS Clear-Sky Forecasts over the Pacific

The objective of this work is to quantitatively verify the quality of COAMPS clear-sky forecasts in terms of the position and timing of clear-sky events primarily over the Pacific Ocean. The results will be communicated in terms of the systematic biases as well as the ability to predict clear periods over a range of spatial scales. The feasibility of applying statistical forecasts and/or physic...

Verification of the Mountain Wave Forecast Model’s Stratospheric Turbulence Forecasts Using Sounding Data and Pilot Reports Thesis

Since stratospheric turbulence (Stratoturb) is becoming an increased concern to the Air Force, the threat of damage to aircraft must be addressed. Therefore, the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) requests an accurate Stratoturb forecast model. In 2002, The Mountain Wave Forecast Model (MWFM) was modified in order to develop a Stratoturb forecast tool. Turbulence forecasts generated twice daily by...